With the reconciliation tax bill headed towards passage, it looks like the individual mandate may be done for.
In the lead-up, I had heard conflicting reports of how the repeal of the individual mandate would affect the rest of Obamacare going forward – everything from “meh” to “instant death spiral.” A couple of resources to get a handle on where we are at:
- Julie Rovner’s “What the Health” podcast at Kaiser focused on mandate repeal this week.
- Sarah Kliff addressed the question in a recent article.
“Economists roundly expect premiums to rise if the individual mandate disappears, as healthier people exit the market, leaving behind a sicker, more expensive insurance pool. Some Americans may gladly exit the marketplace, happy to no longer pay insurance premiums. But there would also be those who exit unwillingly, people who want to buy coverage but cannot afford the rising cost of health insurance.”
Continue reading Health Policy Updates: December 16 2017
Just when you thought Obamacare repeal was over, it’s back – this time, as part of the GOP tax reform effort.
“The revised Senate tax bill will repeal the individual mandate, according to multiple reports. Repealing the mandate — which is the gear that makes the Affordable Care Act tick — would save more than $300 billion over 10 years, but only because millions fewer Americans would have health insurance, according to the Congressional Budget Office. It also means higher premiums, because the younger, healthier people who have an incentive to buy insurance rather than pay the mandate would be expected to exit the market while the sicker people stay in.”
Continue reading Health Policy Updates: November 19 2017
The Alexander-Murray bill, a bipartisan compromise to try to stabilize the Obamacare insurance markets, already faced some big hurdles, such as ambiguous support from the White House. This week, an alternative “stabilization” bill emerged, this one entirely Republican, which seems to look a little bit more like Obamacare repeal than simply an insurance market patch.
“Hatch-Brady adds explicitly partisan objectives that Democrats will likely reject: the cuts to the Obamacare mandates and the introduction of anti-abortion restrictions to the CSR payments…Hatch and Brady have now introduced two of the most divisive issues in health policy — the individual mandate and abortion — to the Obamacare stabilization talks. Their plan is more akin to a slightly skinnier version of ‘skinny repeal’ from the summer than an Obamacare stabilization package that both parties would likely support.”
Continue reading Health Policy Updates: October 28 2017
Vox.com runs down the recent Trump executive order on health care:
“The ultimate impact will depend on any new regulations written as a result of the order, but overall, the Trump administration could make cheaper plans with skimpier benefits more available — and experts worry that will damage the ACA’s marketplaces.”
More on the White House’s efforts to undermine Obamacare in absence of a Congressional repeal bill:
“But Trump administration officials say that with insurance premiums soaring in many states, consumers should be able to buy less comprehensive, less expensive coverage as an alternative to conventional plans…That has some insurance experts worried. The influx of a set of plans exempt from the Affordable Care Act rules will essentially divide the market and make it increasingly unstable, said Rebecca Owen, a health research actuary with the Society of Actuaries.”
The NYTimes is keeping track of all the ways the White House has been sabotaging the health care law.
Continue reading Health Policy Updates: October 15 2017
This week, reports surfaced to confirm that the Trump administration is actively engaged in ACA sabotage. The strategy is to quite literally inflict financial harm on the American people, by way of increasing insurance premiums on the exchanges.
“For months, officials in Republican-controlled Iowa had sought federal permission to revitalize their ailing health-insurance marketplace. Then President Trump read about the request in a newspaper story and called the federal director weighing the application. “
As long as Trump is out to sabotage things, how about women’s health and rights?
“The new rules take effect immediately. And they allow large, publicly traded companies to seek an exemption from the birth control requirement if they have a religious or moral objection to providing such coverage. The Obama administration barred these large businesses from such exemptions.”
Continue reading Health Policy Updates: October 8 2017